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Steve Duemig
Steve Duemig Super Sunday's Winners 30 Dime - Saints
The biggest game of the year is once again upon us and once again we see the little tricks that Vegas will play on the public. They will shade the line against the public. Smart professional bettors, especially in this game will more times than no will bet against the public rather than to handicap the game itself. We could sit here all day and break down every part of thios game but a turnover here or an injury there can blow all that preperation all to hell in a heart beat.
The line opened at Colts -3,5., and even as low as -3 in some places. I rocketed up to 5.5 almost instantly! Why?Well the line was posted right after the Colts beat the tar out of the Jets in the early game. Then those that stayed in the books and watched the Saints struggle at home against the Vikings immediately bet the Colts based on the showings of each winning team. Also there was some position taking by the smart bettors knowing that Colt money would continue to pour in and the would be able to buy back the Saints at a much higher number. The line got to 6 and thats when you started to see the Saints money start to come. It came in for a couple of reasons. The Freeney injury played a part, with people speculating on his ability to play. All signs do point to him playing by the way. And the bad taste of their sloppy win over the Vikes was starting to go away and they were looking at the Saintws for what they had been all year. A dynamic explosive football team.
Lets look at the line realistically here. Vegas KNOWS that the public WILL bet the FAVORITE at any line, and the WILL bet the OVER. This is why they shade it against the public. The Super bowl is always played at a neutral site so let's take a look. With the line currently at Colts -5 are we to beleive that at home they would be favored by -8 or would be favored by -2 in New Orleans???? Of course not. See how they shaded it. We will most likey see this line even higher at kickoff and therefore we will bet against the public and forget about handicapping the game. the public has done it for us.We will take the saints and the points much like we did last year with the under dog Cardinals against the all powerful Steelers.
In the last 19 years in the super bowl, Vegas has won 17 of the 19 times. They know what they are doing, especially when it comes to a single game for all the marbles.
10 Dime - Saints-Colts (UNDER)
Everyone expects an aerial show between Manning and Brees and we may get it. The object however is to win the game and teams must use their strengths to exploit the other teams' weaknesses. What is the Saints weakness? Stopping the run. the colts can and will run the ball when they need to and this game they have to to keep Williams and his band of blitzers at bay.
The Saints have had problems in the past throwing theball against cover 2 defenses. If you need proof, they lost to the Bucs this year!!! Therefore with the Colts safeties playting deep, they will rely on Thomas and Bush to run the ball. Keep in mind, the Saints have run the ball 431 times this year. They also have completed over 150 passes to their two tight ends and their backs combined this season as well. That's a lot of dinking and dunking.
The Saints have run up some big scores in the playoffs based off turnovers. The colts don't turn the ball over. Every inch on the field will be earned.This should be a great game and we have the odds in our favor, so let's see if we can close this baby out with a winner.
Paid & Confirmed
Steve Duemig Super Sunday's Winners 30 Dime - Saints
The biggest game of the year is once again upon us and once again we see the little tricks that Vegas will play on the public. They will shade the line against the public. Smart professional bettors, especially in this game will more times than no will bet against the public rather than to handicap the game itself. We could sit here all day and break down every part of thios game but a turnover here or an injury there can blow all that preperation all to hell in a heart beat.
The line opened at Colts -3,5., and even as low as -3 in some places. I rocketed up to 5.5 almost instantly! Why?Well the line was posted right after the Colts beat the tar out of the Jets in the early game. Then those that stayed in the books and watched the Saints struggle at home against the Vikings immediately bet the Colts based on the showings of each winning team. Also there was some position taking by the smart bettors knowing that Colt money would continue to pour in and the would be able to buy back the Saints at a much higher number. The line got to 6 and thats when you started to see the Saints money start to come. It came in for a couple of reasons. The Freeney injury played a part, with people speculating on his ability to play. All signs do point to him playing by the way. And the bad taste of their sloppy win over the Vikes was starting to go away and they were looking at the Saintws for what they had been all year. A dynamic explosive football team.
Lets look at the line realistically here. Vegas KNOWS that the public WILL bet the FAVORITE at any line, and the WILL bet the OVER. This is why they shade it against the public. The Super bowl is always played at a neutral site so let's take a look. With the line currently at Colts -5 are we to beleive that at home they would be favored by -8 or would be favored by -2 in New Orleans???? Of course not. See how they shaded it. We will most likey see this line even higher at kickoff and therefore we will bet against the public and forget about handicapping the game. the public has done it for us.We will take the saints and the points much like we did last year with the under dog Cardinals against the all powerful Steelers.
In the last 19 years in the super bowl, Vegas has won 17 of the 19 times. They know what they are doing, especially when it comes to a single game for all the marbles.
10 Dime - Saints-Colts (UNDER)
Everyone expects an aerial show between Manning and Brees and we may get it. The object however is to win the game and teams must use their strengths to exploit the other teams' weaknesses. What is the Saints weakness? Stopping the run. the colts can and will run the ball when they need to and this game they have to to keep Williams and his band of blitzers at bay.
The Saints have had problems in the past throwing theball against cover 2 defenses. If you need proof, they lost to the Bucs this year!!! Therefore with the Colts safeties playting deep, they will rely on Thomas and Bush to run the ball. Keep in mind, the Saints have run the ball 431 times this year. They also have completed over 150 passes to their two tight ends and their backs combined this season as well. That's a lot of dinking and dunking.
The Saints have run up some big scores in the playoffs based off turnovers. The colts don't turn the ball over. Every inch on the field will be earned.This should be a great game and we have the odds in our favor, so let's see if we can close this baby out with a winner.
Paid & Confirmed
